AI is Eating the World [Recorded Workshop]

We're standing at a technological inflection point that rivals the most transformative moments in modern history.

Just as the Internet fundamentally rewired how we communicate and conduct business, artificial intelligence is now poised to redefine the very nature of productivity, creativity, and human potential.

This isn't merely another tech trend; it’s the AI Supercycle, a 30-50-year economic transformation that will touch every aspect of our lives.

From Google's Blackberry Moment to the AI Revolution

Google dominated the digital landscape for over two decades with its search monopoly, much like Microsoft ruled the desktop era before it.

But we're now witnessing what I describe as Google's "BlackBerry moment."

Just as BlackBerry's revenue peaked even as the iPhone revolutionized mobile computing, Google Search is experiencing record revenues while facing an existential threat from AI assistants.

The November 30, 2022, launch of ChatGPT marked a watershed moment.

As someone who had been selling AI solutions for seven years prior, I was still caught off guard by the scale and speed of adoption. That night, it became crystal clear that AI had finally reached the point where it could scale to billions of users—a new paradigm had arrived.

The Three Phases of AI Integration

Phase 1: Linear Expansion (Next 10 Years) - "AI is Eating Web"

We're currently in the first phase of the AI supercycle, where AI is being integrated as a layer on top of every industry that emerged during the internet era. This isn't about AI killing these industries—it's about AI amplifying what remains valuable and expanding it exponentially.

• E-commerce platforms are gaining AI-powered personalization
• Social media is evolving with AI content generation and curation
• Digital marketing is becoming hyper-targeted through AI analytics
• FinTech is incorporating AI for fraud detection and automated trading

This phase represents what I call "Web Squared"—taking every web-based industry from the past 30 years and multiplying its capabilities through AI integration.

Phase 2: Partial Non-Linear Expansion (10-30 Years) - "AI is Eating Tech"

In this phase, technologies that have struggled to achieve commercial viability will finally break through, powered by AI:

5-10 Years:

• AR/VR will become truly practical as AI enables real-time environment understanding
• Edge computing will distribute AI processing closer to users
• Autonomous vehicles will achieve widespread deployment
• Humanoid robots will enter enterprise environments

10-20 Years:

• Quantum computing will mature, potentially creating exponential AI capabilities
• Nanotechnology will enable microscopic AI-powered devices
• Brain-computer interfaces will begin merging human and artificial intelligence

Phase 3: Fully Non-Linear Expansion (20-50 Years) - "Beyond Human"

This final phase ventures into territory that fundamentally redefines what it means to be human:

• Bio-digital integration
• Cognitive engineering
• Quantum AI systems
• Technologies we can't yet imagine

The Evolution from Search to AI Assistants

The shift from Google Search to AI assistants represents more than just a change in interface—it's a fundamental transformation in how we interact with information:

The Old Paradigm:

• Google as intermediary for all information needs
• SEO-optimized content farms
• Ad revenue-driven publishing incentives
• Fragmented, multi-step workflows

The New Paradigm:

• AI assistants as direct problem solvers
• Primary source information valued over aggregation
• Outcome-based business models
• Integrated, single-interface solutions

The AI Value Chain and Economic Implications

The AI ecosystem is perhaps the most complex and interconnected technological infrastructure humans have ever built. It spans from semiconductor fabrication to cloud infrastructure to model development to applications.

The CapEx Phase

We're still in the capital expenditure phase, where tech giants are investing hundreds of billions to build the necessary infrastructure:

• AI data centers requiring massive energy and cooling systems
• Advanced GPU production and deployment
• Cloud infrastructure optimization for AI workloads

In 2025 alone, aggregate CapEx investment from major tech companies will exceed $300 billion—and this is just the beginning.

Three Investment Categories

1. Infrastructure (Billions in Capital)
   • Requires massive investment ($50-70 billion per project)
   • Joint ventures between public and private sectors
   • Geopolitical considerations for data center placement
   • Limited to a few major players with outsized returns
2. AI-Native Startups (Seed Stage)
   • Rapid growth trajectories (0 to $100M revenue in months)
   • Timing is critical—opportunities can vanish in weeks
   • Small teams with massive market impact
   • Higher risk but potentially astronomical returns
3. Enterprise Verticals
   • More traditional VC investment patterns
   • Portfolio approach with diversified bets
   • Lower but more predictable returns
   • Larger check sizes ($10-50M) even at early stages

The Transformation of Software and Business Models

From SaaS to AI Apps

Traditional software-as-a-service is being fundamentally redefined:

Traditional Software:

• Human-driven
• Deterministic (binary outcomes)
• Subscription-based pricing
• Time or seat-based metrics

AI-Native Software:

• Autonomous decision-making
• Probabilistic reasoning
• Outcome-based pricing
• Performance and results metrics

The Rise of the AI App

Companies like Cursor (valued at $2.5 billion) and Windsurf (acquired by Codeium) demonstrate the explosive growth potential of AI-native applications. These companies are characterized by:

• Leveraging existing web distribution channels
• Small teams achieving massive scale
• Rapid prototyping and iteration cycles
• Focus on specific vertical solutions

Scaling Laws and the Path to AGI

The AI field has experienced three distinct scaling phases:

1. Pre-training Scaling: Massive models trained on internet-scale data
2. Post-training Scaling: Fine-tuning and reinforcement learning for better outputs
3. Test-Time Scaling: Deep reasoning capabilities and autonomous agent behavior

This progression is moving us from 20-40% productivity gains to potential 2-5x improvements in human capability across various domains.

Preparing for the AI Future

For Established Companies

• Begin with tactical AI projects while preparing for organizational transformation
• Recognize that full AI integration requires fundamental rethinking of business processes
• Focus on building AI literacy throughout the organization
• Prepare for the shift from subscription to outcome-based revenue models

For Entrepreneurs

• Embrace AI-native architectures from day one
• Focus on rapid experimentation and market feedback
• Build for speed and agility in the first year
• Develop operational advantages in year two
• Establish strategic moats within five years

For Investors

• Understand the different risk/return profiles across the AI stack
• Prepare for unconventional investment structures (public-private partnerships)
• Recognize that timing is more critical than ever in AI investments
• Build strong brands to attract the best AI startups early

What’s Next?

We're witnessing another technology upgrade and living through a civilizational transformation.

The AI supercycle will unfold over decades, but its impact will be measured in centuries. Just as the Industrial Revolution fundamentally altered human society, AI will redefine what it means to be productive, creative, and human.

The winners in this new era won't be those who resist change but those who embrace it thoughtfully and strategically.

Whether you're a business leader, entrepreneur, investor, or someone trying to understand our rapidly changing world, the time to engage with AI is now.

The supercycle has begun, and its waves will lift those prepared to ride them while washing away those who ignore the tide.

As we stand at this precipice, one thing is sure: the future will radically differ from our past, and AI will be the primary force shaping that difference. The question isn't whether to participate in this transformation but how to position ourselves to thrive.