The Outcome-Based AI Economy

While it’s buzzy in the short term, this trend is here to stay, whether you call it MCP, agents, or something else.

The point is we’re getting to a place where AI systems can work continuously for hours to achieve very complex outcomes.

This progress combines extended thinking, tool use, instruction following, and reward hacking.

And we’re only at the start of this consolidating trend.

How did we get here, and what’s next?

Also, this is a comprehensive navigational guide on the good and bad we can expect from outcome-based business models and how to deal with them.

The software industry has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past four decades, not just in terms of technology and capabilities but fundamentally in how software is priced, distributed, and consumed.

This evolution reflects broader shifts in business models, customer expectations, and the very nature of value creation in the digital economy.